Fed Minutes, GBP

Fed comes out with minutes today, I expect them to be quite boring.  Aka, I expect no hint that they will not taper....  which still (and quite possibly inaccurately) seems to the slight belief bias driving dollar based action right now.  Technically and fundamentally I expect USD to continue on a strength kick until we approach the next Fed rate decision in which we will either unwind taper expectations or exacerbate them.  As far as the GBP goes, it keeps inching higher slowly carving out new tops in the 1.56 and 1.57 (while the euro is acting similar around 1.34).  I do hold a small GBP position short still.... its quite a bit out of the money right now...but the current price action is setting up for a great short opportunity.  Euro already seems to be coming into some significant resistance.  1.345-1.36 represent strong resistance and i'm looking to sell into 1.35 if we can make it there.  GBP is moving up towards June highs at 1.575, an area where I will be looking to add to my short.  The run up in GBP strength has been great fun and all.... but at some point we need to start pricing in the next step up in QE, its due (see my previous post for a bit more explanation on that).

Meanwhile the AUD/USD is screaming lower.  My entry long in this pair could have been a lot better, and i'm paying the price for it.  I was astute enough catch NZDUSD at obvious technical highs (a fundamentally overbought currency with large potential downside).... and its negative run has been offsetting my AUD losses.  However, I do expect the AUD to move towards strength here at some point despite USD action.   Both my AUD and NZD positions are "full sized", though i'm definitely not afraid to add if I feel the opportunity presents itself.  We are at good or close to good technical setups favoring the fundamental direction in a variety of currencies, so late august is looking to be full of opportunity.

FWIW.... My "fundamental" direction on some major currency pairs.  We'll see where this is in a few months.

EURUSD...Bear
GBPUSD...Bear
AUDUSD...Bull
NZDUSD...Bear
USDJPY....Bull
USDCAD....Bull

As you may be able to tell, most of this is USD driven with the exception of AUDUSD right now.  This makes the trade a good "hedge" against my other positions during dollar event risk which is all too frequent, and the root of all evil.


Also, current open trades:
long AU, short NU, long UC, short GU