With the present economic situation I thought it would be timely to scribble some thoughts together about some upcoming economic events.
A quick catch up: since my last post, Trump has been elected president (and begun filling his cabinet with what can best be described as the seal team 6 for eliminating clean energy regulation....), stocks are at all time highs, India made a large percentage of its in-ciruclation cash illegal, venezuela inflation is still out of control, and the fed is expected to raise rates from a half percent to 0.75% next week.
Focussing on the rate expectation going forward... most "likely" scenarios involve raising rates in december by a quarter percent and holding for at least six months. Here are a few bold predictions for next year if that plays out:
- We will add more to the national debt in 2017 than ever in history
- SDRs become a legitimate option for bailing out foreign governments... discussions and contingency plans for this put in place.
- oil up, gold up, Russian economy up. The cards are really stacking up in favor for these outcomes...
- US leaves treaty of Paris.... This has already been predicted, but I don't think it's a bluff!
- Bad year for china: yuan crashes to record lows.
- EUR/GBP hits new all time high! I think the BoE has a long and dreadful decade ahead of them.
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