Back at it with some off-beat forecasts

It's been a while!

With the present economic situation I thought it would be timely to scribble some thoughts together about some upcoming economic events.

A quick catch up: since my last post, Trump has been elected president (and begun filling his cabinet with what can best be described as the seal team 6 for eliminating clean energy regulation....), stocks are at all time highs, India made a large percentage of its in-ciruclation cash illegal, venezuela inflation is still out of control, and the fed is expected to raise rates from a half percent to 0.75% next week.

Focussing on the rate expectation going forward... most "likely" scenarios involve raising rates in december by a quarter percent and holding for at least six months. Here are a few bold predictions for next year if that plays out:

• We will add more to the national debt in 2017 than ever in history
  
• SDRs become a legitimate option for bailing out foreign governments... discussions and contingency plans for this put in place.
  
• oil up, gold up, Russian economy up. The cards are really stacking up in favor for these outcomes...
  
• US leaves treaty of Paris.... This has already been predicted, but I don't think it's a bluff!
  
• Bad year for china: yuan crashes to record lows.
  
• EUR/GBP hits new all time high! I think the BoE has a long and dreadful decade ahead of them.

Three simple, short, reasons why Trump will be the next president

1. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Chances are everyone in Washington you hate is outraged by Trump's momentum. The stops the establishment is pulling out in attempt to destroy the Trump campaign are set up to backfire: As a whole, the establishment is a greater evil to the american voter than a billionaire with bad hair.

2. America is not ready for a female president. It isn't fair, it isn't right, but the reality is that the instinctive and primal nature of human beings still gravitates towards a male leader. Advantage Trump.

3. Publicity. Trump is controversial and dominates airtime. He was recently featured on the cover of time magazine and the election is still half a year away. From start to finish, Trump will continue to dominate all forms of publicity.


I am not a Trump fan, but as a gambler these are the three points that keep me from putting any money down on a Clinton victory.

Many global currencies are slowly but surely realizing their demise, what now?

The board is full of chess pieces and there are a lot of winning moves. Here are a few of my thoughts.

1. Short CNH. The "house of cards" is not going away and they will stop at nothing to improve measures of the economy (stocks). They recently extended the short sale ban for 6 months and have been active with monetary intervention, depreciating the yuan significantly over the last couple months. This is not the end this is the beginning, now that the yuan is allowed to trade more freely everyone can take advantage of this opportunity.
   
2. Long ZAR. Oversold and hit hard by the commodity downturn. If there is one bright spot in the south african economy it's the prospect of a stronger currency, even though the monetary policy remains in uncertain turmoil. This is one to keep an eye on.