Wednesday, May 20, 2015

The Fundamentals of Technicals

I've often found myself questioning practical knowledge on what defines resistance and support in trading. Surely if there is formula for determination of technical levels then the market is more than beatable, and the few winners with the technical understanding stand to profit immensely. However the reality is that these winners can never continue profiting with the same formula week after week. What we call "technicals" is the ever changing science of figuring out the majority perception. In the end it is traders that move the market, fundamentally via supply and demand for an asset. Strong resistance and support levels are merely points at which a high volume of traders determine the asset is likely to reverse course. To complicate matters, what one knows of the market's perception changes one's own strategy for entering or exiting a trade.  This is to say that if the market perceives strong resistance at a level, say 1.002, most traders would opt to sell prior to 1.002 as opposed to exactly at 1.002.  This provides some cushion and leaves room to mitigate errors in judgement. In itself this drives the resistance level lower as more and more traders determine selling prior to 1.002 is the best course of action. It's a recursive, ever evolving loop that intrinsically muddles with any technical levels that are predictable and unchallenged.

No comments:

Post a Comment