I've won, i've lost.
That would be my sentiment after getting accidentally caught on the wrong side of the EUR/CHF a bit after my last post. I've had a lot of time to reflect on my risk aversion... the move that single handedly wiped out fx brokers also bankrupted my successful trading from 2014.
Regardless, i'm back in the game and always will be.
In identifying similar risks in the market today I think we don't need to look any further than the USD. Current USD sentiment is so incredibly bullish that it is difficult to imagine how it could be derailed. Of course we all know how it can be derailed.... but it will take a major reversal of the fed policy (or someone else to step up with some balls and give the whole austerity thing a try).
Regardless, this seems to be the most immediate black swan in sight. So without further excuses, my trades for the month are going to be:
Long AUD/NZD, technically and fundamentally a good setup, very oversold.
Short USD. Trade on hold until a setup presents itself, but it could be the trade of the year with the way it has positioned itself like a coiled spring.
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