As usual though, this won't stop me from profiting. Since I already have open positions short the EURUSD and the AUDUSD, i'm going to weather through the event risk and hope the FED doesn't get too dovish just yet.
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
Ahead of Today's FOMC Minutes Release
There is a strong case to argue that the FOMC minutes will bring nothing but bad news. Released at 1:00 pm CT today, the fed will either do one of two things: They will confirm the notion that everything is peachy, but emphasize that they are willing to take measures if the "euro contagion" spreads our way. OR, The fed will express neutrality with regard to the current conditions and hint that QE3 is a necessary tool that will be employed if conditions deteriorate. The former is more likely and will likely add some to the recent dollar strength and force more more calls as certain equities/commodities hit new lows and we break through some stop losses. The latter should send the dollar pummeling like a fat kid on a steep hill. This summarize the consequences, equities and commodities are either going to get pummeled or an expectation bubble is going to be created. I figure I'll be disappointed in the end either way.
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Update: Option 1, the "former" occurred. Results were as expected, dollar strength continuing with the trend with markets barely phased by the news. No new information was really released.
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