Markets up today but an in depth look into todays numbers would make the most interesting man in the world quite nervous.
Lets start with the short selling ban in europe. Today is the first day of the short sale ban and while i'm certain they have successfully prevented plently shorts sales from weighing on market prices, it doesn't look good when a government has to intervene to prevent people from shorting. If an economy was healthy, there wouldn't be such a large mass of people shorting everyting, and thus no reason for the short selling ban.
Second, retail numbers came out today much better than expected. I don't think it's too much of a surprise but I think it bodes warning. In my opinion these are unsustainably high and combine mild overextension by consumers with boosts from a weakening dollar (a weak dollar increases reported earnings measured in dollars, especially earnings made in foreign markets). Earnings will correct themselves in the coming months if the weaking dollar did have an effect as baseline company costs will be increasing. A third possible explanation is that expectations were just much too low for retail sales, which is a very real possiblity.
Another number coming out today was consumer confidence, which hit a low point. Now what does it mean when consumer confidence hits lows while retail sales hits highs? Historically, it's a surefire indication of consumer debt. This same behavior can be noted during the "growth" from 2004-2007 after the bush tax cuts.
Consensus on todays news: Retailers are still a poor investment decision.
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