Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Happy late new year....

Getting back into the swing of things, regular posting to resume shortly.  After all, 2014 looks promising to be one of the most volatile years in the last decade. For the first time in history, central banks will (try to) begin winding down the "great experiment", bottomless mess of quantitative easing and near 0% interest rates.  Domestic industry doesn't have quite the economic potential it did during the post WW2 era.... and even if it did, I doubt it could pull us out of the slums.  The hole is too deep.  Most schools of thought blame the great depression on debt deflation, or more specifically, a debt/GDP ratio of 300% and the necessity of dealing with that debt.  While it's accurate to note that our current debt/GDP ratio is also over 300%... I think it think its more appropriate to note the debt per capita for the time period, because it also indicates a sense of economic equality.  The inflation adjusted, debt per capita during the great depression was about $5,900.  The current debt per capita is roughly $54,200.  Keep in mind this IS inflation adjusted. My points:

* Things are not better, they are much, much worse.
* Unwinding QE will lead to chaos.
* More accommodative monetary policy only make the problems worse.