Friday, September 14, 2012

QEnfinity and the changes to the game

QEnfinity is here, and much sooner than I expected.  I figured the Fed would have its hands tied with the S&P at near all time highs, commodity prices up, and operation twist still in full effect.  I guessed wrong, my short opportunities post from august is now null.  I've closed my VIX positions for a moderate loss, and from here I will keep the focus on FX and long positions in certain equities and commodities.  S&P will hit new highs, apple will hit new highs, and I expect silver/gold/oil/corn will test previous highs.  While I still think there will soon exist great short opportunities in the Euro, I remain sidelined for bit while I wait for it to unfold.  Naive in my thoughts of a Eurozone breakup, I now realize that is much more likely that Germany leaves the euro than a nation on the verge of default.  This realization comes at the hands of Mario Draghi and the ECB, who seem intent on doing "whatever it takes" to hold the eurozone together.  Either way it's all bad news for the Euro.  In light of the recent QEnfinity (called so instead of QE3 because it is open ended, can last forever), EUR/CAD will be my favorite short when the time comes.