LTRO 2 529.5 bil euros

The numbers for ECB (euro central bank) bank refinancing operations came out today.  It will be 529.5 billion euros dished out to between 500 and 800 banks in the form of 3 year loans.  I'm not sure if the ECB actually expects most of this money back or not, but the smart money says that most of it will not be repayed.  This is most certainly neutral-bad for my current bank-shorting positions.  I say neutral-bad and not bad because it was rather in line with market expectations and doesn't seem like its causing any eye opening upside movement in the markets.  Gold/silver should be the stand out beneficiaries here.  The bankers can celebrate their victory, even if the wealth of a continent may suffer because of it.  I'm going to set the over under at 3.5 years for the next european bank bailout.

Greece is Saved!!! 130 bil

Looks like Greece is going to successfully kick the can down the road moving that march 23rd default date out a year or so.   ECB balance sheet expanded once again, gold is up big.  Everybody is happy.

Of course no problems have actually been solved.  I can't wait for Italy's turn at the wheel.

Expansion on Previous Post, Gold

The ECB (european central bank) has swapped all of its Greek bond holding for new Greek bonds that do not contain a collective action clause.  Meaning many of the possible notions in the previous post/essay are no longer possible, such as any blocking attempts or restructuring to benefit private bondholders.  The end math is this:  the ECB now controls greek debt, and Greek bonds are worthless.  Private investors and hedge funds with money in Greek bonds are taking huge losses as we speak (this likely includes the IMF, no confirmation yet though).  Full consequences of this may not be entirely clear yet, i'll update as this unfolds.


and just to remind anyone that had forgotten, this is why we buy gold:

Expensive Advice for a Cheap Price

Ever wonder about the way out for Greece?  Who goes down with them?  What happens to bond holders? what happens to the ECB?  What happens to the IMF?  What happens to America?

I've come across some brilliant information that comes from Felix Salmon of Reuters, expanded upon by zero hedge's Tyler Durden.  It's a month old, but more applicable now than ever.  With a full understanding of this essay  anyone would have a full understanding of exactly what will happen to Greece, its balance sheet, and its bondholders.  It's packed with legal and financial insider information.  The cheap "price" I refer to in the title is time and patience.  It takes savvy 5+ year  Goldman vet to understand everything in this article first read through.  Take some time and google the numerous acronyms, legal terms, and financial jargon you've never seen before.  Essay below.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/subordination-101-walkthru-sovereign-bond-markets-post-greek-default-world

March 23?

Fresh out of the rumor mill.  It seems apparent that Greece actually has a plan to default on March 23rd in place if austerity measures don't provide the necessary support in time.  Let the games begin.

Banks under review by moodys, seems under the radar

Investors and hedge funds seem to be downplaying the fact that moody is doing some serious review on the ratings of a ton of European and American banks including BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, JP Morgan, Barclays, ect.

Make no mistake about it, hedge funds maybe be downplaying this in the public eye with statements like "the public has already priced in such downgrades" and "ratings downgrades on banks don't hold the same significance they once did", but behind closed doors they are laying down the hammer knowing full well that many of the banks under review will be downgraded and it will move the sector down as much as 5%.

I'd like to take this opportunity to be the hawk as opposed to the sheep, and make some puts on the most likely candidate for downgrades in my eyes: MS.

All I do is win win winnnnnn

knock on wood.  My bets/predictions/investments have been amazingly accurate this year.  Even if 90% of it is based on tyler durden and zerohedge.com guest posts.

Greece Doomsday Clock

Is running out of time.  After yesterdays tax revenue numbers it is clear Greece has, and will continue to have less and less means to avert a complete default.  GREECE WILL DEFAULT, it is a matter of time.  As I predicted earlier somewhere, I think the doomsday clock on Greece is counting down to May sometime.