A look into LPS

LPS, or lender processing services, is a Florida based mortgage servicer.  In the midst of what could very well be a second collapse of the housing market and an eventual financial meltdown, I can't see any good reason to own this stock.  They've been slapped with subpoena's, and market watch's Cody Willard seems to think they are going to go busto.   However, it's been extremely volatile recently, driving up option prices.  I have to figure that most of the money people are putting into this stock is short term.  I'm not sure when the merry go round will  end, but a well timed put will be the eventual response.  Hopefully I don't miss the boat.

How I'm Playing the US Debt Ceiling Crisis

August 2nd.  That is the ultimate, country in chaos, depression eminent deadline for the US to raise the debt ceiling.  I'm looking for something to be agreed upon sometime in late July, possibly June if washington's feeling up for a comprimise (not quite as likely).  The way I see it, there are three possible outcomes to this scenario:

1.  Debt ceiling raised, 2 trillion, with less than 0.5 trillion in budget cuts.

2. Debt ceiling raised 2 trillion, with republicans convincing the democrats go along with larger budget cuts in the realm of 0.5-2 trillion.

3.  Default, or stop medicare, social security, military funding, ect.


Option 3 isn't really a realistic option.  Option 2 is more realistic, but the political mind is incredibly short-term, and polititians can't be expected to make difficult decisions anytime close to an election year.  That leaves option 1.  Sooner or later the rupublicans will have to give in and raise the debt ceiling so that they will not be blamed for option 3.  This brings me to the point of this post: how to play the debt ceiling decision.  Most are of the opinion that the markets will remain relatively unaffected, which may be true of the market in general, but not on a sector by sector basis.  Look for large gains in commodities when debt ceiling is raised. Silver seems to experience the largest gains of the commodities when favorable monetary policy provokes the sector.  It currently has a great deal of volatility and is coming off a recent dropoff in prices.  Oil, a slightly less volatile investment should also see gains.  Turmoil and disagreements in policy could be short term bad for financials and other sectors.  A default, of course, would cause just about everything to tumble, but of course is not likely.  I'll be betting on commodities, maybe short banks.  If something unexpected happens i'll have to reevaluate, but we'll save that for a later time.

Bullish or Bearish: A starting point

I'd like to establish a list of 10 stocks that I am bullish on, and an addiitonal 10 that I am bearish on.  This will serve as a starting point, a medium through which performance can be judged in the future.  I'm not going to explain any of the selections, but I will evaluate all of them at later dates.

Bullish:
BGY
SIVR
AAPL
KMP
ABB
CH
CCJ
MON
LYSCF
RIO


Bearish:
MS
LNKD
JPM
PFE
GS
ALK
NOK
RIMM
ARO
SHLD

Disclaimer

This is a largely speculative blog created to track the accuracy and validity of speculative predictions and conclusions.  The views expressed within this blog are opinions, and should be treated as such.